Ethereum fair value

What fair value means

Fair value is the price Ether would have if it sat exactly on its long-term trend: a power law fitted once to every daily close since May 2016. It is a fixed line, so past fair values don’t change as new days arrive. Today it is $4,128, and it rises about +21% per year — a little less every year.

It is not a price target. Ether has spent 55% of all days below it and the rest above, often far away: as low as −80% (12 Mar 2020) and as high as +923% (13 Jan 2018).

Bottom and top

The bottom is the fair-value line shifted down until it touches the lowest daily close since 1 January 2017. Ether has not closed below it since then. The top is shifted up so that 97.5% of all daily closes lie below it.

Position in the band

Every day gets a position from 0 (bottom) through 50 (fair value) to 100 (top), measured on a log scale. Today Ether is at 24. The outlook compares days by this position, and the value-weighted DCA buys more the lower it is.

Questions

What is Ethereum’s fair value today?

$4,128 on 14 November 2026. Ether trades at $1,768, 57% below fair value.

Is Ether undervalued?

Relative to its own history, yes: it is 57% below fair value, cheaper relative to trend than on 86% of all days. Whether the trend continues is another question.

Why does fair value keep rising?

Because the power law rises with time since Ethereum’s launch. The growth rate falls every year, which is what separates a power law from exponential growth.